5-Year Financial Model | Interactive Investor View
Version 1.0 Final
FY2026–FY2030 | UK & US | All figures in £'000
FY26 — Pilot
FY27 — First League
FY28–30 — Scaling
Year 5 Revenue
£25.4m
178x growth from FY26
Year 5 EBITDA
£7.2m
28% margin
EBITDA Breakeven
Year 4
FY2029
Series A MOIC
31.7x
On £4m investment
Total Equity Raised
£9.0m
£4m FY26 + £5m FY27
Revenue & EBITDA (£'000)
Revenue Mix — FY2030
Gross Profit & Margin
Cash Balance (£'000)
FY30 Revenue
£25,361k
Largest Stream
Sponsorship
54% of FY30
Revenue Streams
7
Diversified model
5-Year CAGR
234%
Broadcast Monetised
FY2030
£2m in year 5
Revenue by Stream (Stacked)
Revenue Mix Evolution
Revenue Breakdown (£'000)
FY30 Gross Margin
66%
FY30 EBITDA Margin
28%
FY30 Event Cost/Event
£185k
FY30 Headcount
108
FY30 Overheads
£9,447k
Cost Structure (£'000)
Margin Progression
Overhead Breakdown — FY2030
Headcount Growth
FY30 Events
47
FY30 Attendance
123,400
FY30 Leagues
6
4 Men's + 2 Women's
Regions
2
UK (FY26) + US (FY29)
FY30 Sell-through
85%
Standard events
Events by Type
Total Attendance
League Rollout Plan
Profit & Loss (£'000)
Balance Sheet (£'000)
Cash Flow Statement (£'000)
FY30 Enterprise Value
£127m
FY30 EV/Revenue
5.0x
Series A MOIC
31.7x
Series A Investment
£4.0m
Total Equity
£9.0m
Enterprise Value (£m)
Series A MOIC
Valuation Summary
Key Model Drivers & Assumptions
Market Expansion
UK launch in FY26 with 3 exhibition events to build brand awareness and test operations. First competitive league in FY27 with 1 men's weight class across 7 standard events and 1 championship final. US entry in FY29. By FY30: 2 regions, 6 leagues (4 men's + 2 women's), 47 events per year. Venue capacities scale from 1,500 to 3,000 seats with sell-through rates reaching 85%.
Revenue Model — 7 Diversified Streams
Sponsorship is the anchor revenue stream (54% of FY30 revenue at £13.7m), built from headline/global partnerships plus event-level spot sales. Ticket sales contribute 19% (£4.7m). D2C/PPV monetises from FY28 as the digital audience grows, reaching £2.6m by FY30. Broadcast rights activate in FY30 at £2m. Betting commissions scale with events (£1m in FY30). Merch and data licensing provide additional diversification in later years.
Event Cost Structure
Per-event costs decline from £60k (exhibition pilot) to £185k (full standard events at scale) as production values increase but are offset by operational efficiencies. Fighter purse is modelled at ~10% of revenue, aligning with industry benchmarks. Total event costs grow from £180k (3 events) to £8.7m (47 events), but as a percentage of revenue they fall from 127% to 34%, driving the gross margin improvement.
Team & Overheads
Headcount scales from 20 (FY26) to 108 (FY30) across 8 departments. Average cost per head increases from ~£55k to ~£66k reflecting seniority mix. Staff costs are the largest overhead at 75% of total. Central overheads grow from £1.4m to £9.5m, but overhead-to-revenue ratio improves from 960% to 37% as revenue scales faster than the cost base.
Path to Profitability
Gross margin turns positive in FY27 (4%) and reaches 66% by FY30 as sponsorship revenue scales ahead of event costs. EBITDA breakeven occurs in FY29 (2% margin), expanding to 28% in FY30. The model assumes £4m raised in FY26 (pre-Series A + Series A) and £5m additional capital in FY27, providing runway through the loss-making pilot and first-league phases. Cash trough is £2.6m at end of FY28.
Valuation Framework
Using conservative EV/Revenue multiples benchmarked against comparable sports and entertainment businesses (8x in FY28 declining to 5x by FY30 as the business matures and de-risks), implied enterprise value reaches £127m by FY30. This represents a 31.7x MOIC on the £4m Series A investment. The multiple compression reflects the transition from growth-stage to established-business pricing.
Key Risks & Sensitivities
Sponsorship concentration (54% of revenue) — the model assumes headline partners at £750k-£1.5m per league. Sell-through rates are critical to ticket revenue and event atmosphere. US expansion timing (FY29) could shift if UK proof-of-concept takes longer. Fighter purse pressure could emerge as the sport grows. Broadcast rights are binary — currently modelled conservatively at £2m FY30 only.
Key Model Drivers & Assumptions
Market Expansion
UK launch in FY26 with 3 exhibition events to build brand awareness and test operations. First competitive league in FY27 with 1 men's weight class across 7 standard events and 1 championship final. US entry in FY29. By FY30: 2 regions, 6 leagues (4 men's + 2 women's), 47 events per year. Venue capacities scale from 1,500 to 3,000 seats with sell-through rates reaching 85%.
Revenue Model — 7 Diversified Streams
Sponsorship is the anchor revenue stream (54% of FY30 revenue at £13.7m), built from headline/global partnerships plus event-level spot sales. Ticket sales contribute 19% (£4.7m). D2C/PPV monetises from FY28 as the digital audience grows, reaching £2.6m by FY30. Broadcast rights activate in FY30 at £2m. Betting commissions scale with events (£1m in FY30). Merch and data licensing provide additional diversification in later years.
Event Cost Structure
Per-event costs decline from £60k (exhibition pilot) to £185k (full standard events at scale) as production values increase but are offset by operational efficiencies. Fighter purse is modelled at ~10% of revenue, aligning with industry benchmarks. Total event costs grow from £180k (3 events) to £8.7m (47 events), but as a percentage of revenue they fall from 127% to 34%, driving the gross margin improvement.
Team & Overheads
Headcount scales from 20 (FY26) to 108 (FY30) across 8 departments. Average cost per head increases from ~£55k to ~£66k reflecting seniority mix. Staff costs are the largest overhead at 75% of total. Central overheads grow from £1.4m to £9.5m, but overhead-to-revenue ratio improves from 960% to 37% as revenue scales faster than the cost base.
Path to Profitability
Gross margin turns positive in FY27 (4%) and reaches 66% by FY30 as sponsorship revenue scales ahead of event costs. EBITDA breakeven occurs in FY29 (2% margin), expanding to 28% in FY30. The model assumes £4m raised in FY26 (pre-Series A + Series A) and £5m additional capital in FY27, providing runway through the loss-making pilot and first-league phases. Cash trough is £2.6m at end of FY28.
Valuation Framework
Using conservative EV/Revenue multiples benchmarked against comparable sports and entertainment businesses (8x in FY28 declining to 5x by FY30 as the business matures and de-risks), implied enterprise value reaches £127m by FY30. This represents a 31.7x MOIC on the £4m Series A investment. The multiple compression reflects the transition from growth-stage to established-business pricing.
Key Risks & Sensitivities
Sponsorship concentration (54% of revenue) — the model assumes headline partners at £750k-£1.5m per league. Sell-through rates are critical to ticket revenue and event atmosphere. US expansion timing (FY29) could shift if UK proof-of-concept takes longer. Fighter purse pressure could emerge as the sport grows. Broadcast rights are binary — currently modelled conservatively at £2m FY30 only.